Aydın Tiryaki
This article is a continuation of the earlier piece titled “Inclusivity at the World Cup: A New Preliminary Tournament Model for Nations That Have Never Qualified.” The original proposal (Model 1) formed the 16-team preliminary tournament exclusively from countries that have never qualified for a World Cup. This article explores two further iterations of the same framework: Model 2 and Model 3.
Both models share a common foundation: a 16-team preliminary tournament held in the host country before the World Cup, with the four winners earning spots in the main tournament. What changes is only the method by which those 16 teams are selected.
Model 2: The 8 + 8 Hybrid Model
In this model, the 16 teams are drawn equally from two categories.
Category A — Best 8 Never-Qualified Nations: The 8 highest-ranked nations in the current FIFA rankings among all countries that have never qualified for a World Cup.
Category B — The 8 Longest-Absent Nations: The 8 countries that previously qualified for at least one World Cup but have since gone the longest without returning. The selection criterion is straightforward and transparent: the 8 nations with the oldest most recent qualification year.
The most important feature of this model is that it addresses two distinct historical injustices simultaneously: those who have never reached the stage at all, and those who once did but have since been forgotten. Category B’s reliance purely on the length of absence reflects a principle of raw historical justice — time, not FIFA points, is the deciding factor.
The model’s weakness, however, lies in the same place. Nations such as Cuba (FIFA 164th) or Kuwait (FIFA 133rd), despite their 88- and 44-year absences respectively, may compromise the competitive quality of the tournament.
Model 3: The 8 + Filtered 8 Hybrid Model
In this model, Category A is identical to Model 2. Category B, however, incorporates a filtering mechanism.
Category A — Best 8 Never-Qualified Nations: Identical to Model 2; the 8 highest-ranked never-qualified nations by FIFA ranking.
Category B — Best 8 from the Pool of 16 Longest-Absent Nations: The 16 nations that have been absent from the World Cup the longest are identified. From within that pool of 16, the best 8 by current FIFA ranking are selected.
This model balances two criteria: historical absence (required to enter the pool) and current quality (required to be selected from it). In other words, a nation must both have been absent long enough and remain a competitively meaningful football force.
As a result, Model 3 brings forward teams with storied football histories and continued competitive strength — Hungary, Romania, the Republic of Ireland — while filtering out weaker but historically distant nations such as Cuba or Trinidad and Tobago. This approach preserves both the symbolic value and the competitive integrity of the tournament.
A Comparison of the Two Models
| Feature | Model 2 | Model 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Category A | 8 never-qualified (by FIFA rank) | 8 never-qualified (by FIFA rank) |
| Category B selection criterion | 8 longest absent (by year) | 16 longest absent → best 8 by FIFA rank |
| Historical justice | Strong | Moderate |
| Competitive quality | Moderate | Strong |
| Risk of weak teams | High (e.g. Cuba, Kuwait) | Low (thanks to filtering mechanism) |
| Surprise potential | High | Moderate–High |
Challenges and Alternative Perspectives
Both models face objections broadly similar to those raised against Model 1: congested match calendars, club resistance to releasing players, and concerns about brand value. An additional critical question arises here: should Category B prioritise duration of absence or current quality?
Model 2 defends a philosophy of pure historical justice. Cuba’s appearance at this tournament after 88 years of absence would add a deeply human story to football’s narrative — regardless of what happens on the pitch. Model 3 is more pragmatic; it accepts historical absence as an entry condition, but crowns the final selection with quality.
The choice between the two ultimately comes down to how one answers a single question: is this tournament a right, or a merit-based reward?
Conclusion
The three models developed in progression from Model 1 are not alternatives to one another — they are complementary thought experiments. Model 1 represents pure inclusivity, Model 2 embodies historical justice, and Model 3 strikes a balance between inclusivity and competitive quality. FIFA could evaluate each against its own vision and tournament objectives, or even develop a new format that synthesises elements of all three.
In the end, the real issue is not the technical details of any given model, but whether the will to act exists at all. For the World Cup to truly become the cup of the world, a structural step of this kind is in complete alignment with football’s global mission.
Annex 1: Hypothetical 16-Team Tournament Roster for Model 2
(Based on the official FIFA rankings dated 11 June 2026)
Category A — Best 8 Never-Qualified Nations
| # | Country | FIFA Rank | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela | 49 | 1469.18 |
| 2 | Mali | 55 | 1455.59 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 62 | 1406.99 |
| 4 | Albania | 66 | 1376.03 |
| 5 | North Macedonia | 69 | 1369.16 |
| 6 | Georgia | 72 | 1355.26 |
| 7 | Finland | 75 | 1341.92 |
| 8 | Kosovo | 78 | 1319.12 |
Category B — 8 Longest-Absent Nations (Ranked by Years of Absence)
| # | Country | Last Qualified | Absence | FIFA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cuba | 1938 | 88 years | 164 |
| 2 | Indonesia | 1938 | 88 years | 122 |
| 3 | Israel | 1970 | 56 years | 76 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 1982 | 44 years | 100 |
| 5 | Kuwait | 1982 | 44 years | 133 |
| 6 | Hungary | 1986 | 40 years | 39 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 1986 | 40 years | 70 |
| 8 | UAE | 1990 | 36 years | 68 |
Annex 2: Hypothetical 16-Team Tournament Roster for Model 3
(Based on the official FIFA rankings dated 11 June 2026)
Category A — Best 8 Never-Qualified Nations
(Identical to Model 2)
| # | Country | FIFA Rank | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela | 49 | 1469.18 |
| 2 | Mali | 55 | 1455.59 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 62 | 1406.99 |
| 4 | Albania | 66 | 1376.03 |
| 5 | North Macedonia | 69 | 1369.16 |
| 6 | Georgia | 72 | 1355.26 |
| 7 | Finland | 75 | 1341.92 |
| 8 | Kosovo | 78 | 1319.12 |
Category B — Best 8 by FIFA Rank from the Pool of 16 Longest-Absent Nations
The 16 nations with the longest World Cup absences were first identified; the best 8 by current FIFA ranking were then selected from within that pool.
| # | Country | FIFA Rank | Last Qualified | Absence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hungary | 39 | 1986 | 40 years |
| 2 | Romania | 54 | 1998 | 28 years |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland | 58 | 2002 | 24 years |
| 4 | UAE | 68 | 1990 | 36 years |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 70 | 1986 | 40 years |
| 6 | Jamaica | 71 | 1998 | 28 years |
| 7 | Israel | 76 | 1970 | 56 years |
| 8 | Bolivia | 77 | 1994 | 32 years |
The following 8 nations were part of the 16-strong pool but were filtered out on FIFA ranking grounds: Cuba (164th), Indonesia (122nd), Kuwait (133rd), El Salvador (100th), Bulgaria (87th), Angola (88th), China (91st), Trinidad and Tobago (~135th).
Publication Notes
The concepts, models, and analytical framework presented in this article were developed entirely by Aydın Tiryaki. All data was compiled through web searches conducted via Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic), which also assisted with structuring the comparative analysis alongside the author.
Concepts and Models: Aydın Tiryaki Data Compilation and Structuring: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) Prepared for Publication by: Aydın Tiryaki
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