Aydın Tiryaki, Mistral AI
Date: May 17, 2026
Introduction
In football leagues, especially as the season nears its end, determining relegation scenarios is both a technical and strategic process. This article explores the methods, data, and AI-assisted analysis used to identify which teams would be relegated from the Turkish Süper Lig in the 2025-2026 season. The process was shaped through a collaboration between Aydın Tiryaki’s inquiries and guidance and Mistral AI’s data collection, computation, and scenario analysis capabilities.
1. Problem Definition and Objective
Aydın Tiryaki initiated the process by asking, “Which teams will be relegated from Süper Lig after the matches played on May 17, 2026?” The goal was to use the current league standings, fixture list, and league rules to calculate all possible relegation scenarios.
Key Questions:
- Which teams are mathematically certain to be relegated?
- Which teams could be relegated depending on the results of today’s matches?
- How are complex situations, such as three-way or four-way tiebreakers, evaluated?
2. Data Collection Process
2.1. Sources Used
Mistral AI gathered up-to-date and accurate data from the following sources:
| Source | Description | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Mackolik | League standings, fixtures, match results | Current standings and remaining fixtures |
| TFF Official Website | Official league rules, standings | Verification of league rules |
| Hürriyet Spor | News and analysis | Tracking relegation scenarios in the media |
| FlashScore | Live match results | Real-time updates on league standings |
Note: Aydın Tiryaki emphasized the importance of reliable data sources, warning that unofficial websites might contain inaccurate information.
2.2. Collected Data
| Data Type | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| League Standings | Current points, matches played | Fatih Karagümrük: 30 points, 34 matches |
| Fixtures | Remaining matches and opponents | Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor (May 17, 2026) |
| Goal Difference | Goals scored and conceded | Antalyaspor: -23 |
| Head-to-Head Record | Results between teams with equal points | Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor: 1-1 |
| League Rules | Tiebreaker criteria | 1. Head-to-head, 2. Goal difference, 3. Goals scored |
3. Methodology: Step-by-Step Calculation
Mistral AI adopted a systematic approach, shaped by Aydın Tiryaki’s guidance.
3.1. Current Situation Analysis
- Teams in the relegation zone were identified:
- Fatih Karagümrük (30 points, 34 matches)
- Antalyaspor (29 points, 33 matches)
- Kayserispor (27 points, 33 matches)
- Mathematically certain relegations were determined:
- Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor cannot gain enough points in their remaining matches to avoid relegation.
Aydın Tiryaki’s Contribution:
- “To confirm that Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor are definitely relegated, we need to calculate the maximum possible points they can gain from their remaining matches.”
3.2. Possible Match Outcomes and Scenarios
Mistral AI calculated the possible outcomes (win, draw, loss) of today’s matches and their impact on the league standings.
Example Scenarios:
| Antalyaspor Result | Kayserispor Result | F. Karagümrük | Relegated Teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win (32 points) | Win (30 points) | 30 points | F. Karagümrük, Kayserispor |
| Draw (30 points) | Win (30 points) | 30 points | F. Karagümrük, Kayserispor, Antalyaspor (via tiebreakers) |
| Loss (29 points) | Loss (27 points) | 30 points | F. Karagümrük, Kayserispor, Antalyaspor |
Aydın Tiryaki’s Insight:
- “In the event of a draw, head-to-head records become crucial. Therefore, we must also examine the results of matches between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük.”
3.3. Tiebreaker Calculations
Head-to-Head Record
- Matches between Antalyaspor, Fatih Karagümrük, and Kayserispor were analyzed.
Example:
- Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: 1-1 (Draw)
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor: 2-0 (Antalyaspor win)
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor: 1-1 (Draw)
Head-to-Head Results:
| Team | Points (Head-to-Head) | Goal Difference (Head-to-Head) |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | 4 | +1 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 2 | 0 |
| Kayserispor | 1 | -1 |
Result: Antalyaspor leads in head-to-head tiebreakers.
Three-Way Tiebreaker
- If three teams are tied on points, the following criteria are applied in order:
- Head-to-head points (only matches between the tied teams)
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Overall goal difference
- Goals scored
- Drawing of lots
Aydın Tiryaki’s Question:
- “What are the official TFF rules for three-way tiebreakers, and how are they applied?”
Mistral AI’s Response:
- According to TFF rules, head-to-head records are prioritized, followed by overall goal difference, goals scored, and finally a draw.
3.4. Three-Way/Four-Way Tie Scenarios
Mistral AI explained how to handle scenarios where three or four teams are tied on points:
- Head-to-Head Record (only matches between the tied teams)
- Overall Goal Difference (all matches)
- Goals Scored
- Drawing of Lots
Example Scenario:
- Antalyaspor, Fatih Karagümrük, Kayserispor all tied at 30 points.
- If the head-to-head records are equal, the overall goal difference is considered.
4. The Role of Artificial Intelligence
Mistral AI played a key role in automating and ensuring the accuracy of this process:
4.1. Data Collection and Verification
- Conducted web searches to gather up-to-date league standings and fixtures.
- Verified the reliability of sources (e.g., Mackolik, TFF official website).
4.2. Scenario Analysis
- Combined possible match outcomes (win, draw, loss) to calculate all possible scenarios.
- Updated league standings and tiebreaker calculations accordingly.
4.3. Solving Complex Cases
- Applied TFF’s official rules to resolve three-way or four-way tiebreakers using head-to-head records, overall goal difference, and goals scored.
Aydın Tiryaki’s Guidance:
- “AI should not only handle simple scenarios but also complex tiebreakers. Therefore, it’s essential to fully understand the TFF’s rules.”
5. Challenges and Solutions
| Challenge | Description | Solution |
|---|---|---|
| Data Reliability | Some websites may have inaccurate or outdated data | Used official sources (TFF, Mackolik) |
| Complex Tiebreakers | Difficulty in calculating three-way/four-way ties | Applied TFF’s official rules |
| Multiple Possible Scenarios | Each match has 3 possible outcomes | Conducted systematic scenario analysis |
| Real-Time Updates | Need to track live match results | Used live data sources (FlashScore) |
6. Results and Recommendations
6.1. Findings
- Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor are mathematically relegated as of May 17, 2026.
- Antalyaspor’s fate depends on the result of today’s match against Kocaelispor:
- If they win, they avoid relegation.
- If they draw or lose, tiebreaker rules (head-to-head, overall goal difference) will determine their fate, and they may be relegated.
6.2. AI Contributions
- Fast and accurate data collection
- Automated calculation of complex scenarios
- Correct application of TFF rules
6.3. Aydın Tiryaki’s Recommendations
- Always verify the accuracy of data sources.
- Fully understand league rules (head-to-head, overall goal difference, goals scored).
- Account for three-way/four-way tie scenarios.
- Use automated tools (Excel, Python) to simplify the process.
7. Future Work
- Develop automated scenario calculation tools (e.g., a Python-based program).
- Provide real-time relegation scenarios by tracking live match results.
- Apply similar analyses to other leagues (Premier League, La Liga, etc.).
8. References
- Mackolik – Süper Lig Standings
- TFF Official Website
- Hürriyet Spor – Relegated Teams
- FlashScore – Süper Lig Match Results
9. Appendices
Appendix 1: League Standings (May 17, 2026)
| Position | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goal Difference | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fatih Karagümrük | 30 | 34 | -23 | 31 | 54 |
| 17 | Antalyaspor | 29 | 33 | -23 | 32 | 55 |
| 18 | Kayserispor | 27 | 33 | -36 | 25 | 61 |
Appendix 2: Today’s Matches (May 17, 2026)
| Time | Match |
|---|---|
| 14:00 | Kayserispor – Konyaspor |
| 17:00 | Fenerbahçe – Eyüpspor |
| 17:00 | Kasımpaşa – Galatasaray |
| 17:00 | Trabzonspor – Gençlerbirliği |
| 17:00 | Antalyaspor – Kocaelispor |
10. About the Authors
Aydın Tiryaki: A researcher with a keen interest in football analysis and data-driven studies. In the process of calculating relegation scenarios in Süper Lig, he provided guiding questions and validated data.
Mistral AI: An AI-powered assistant that collected data, performed scenario analysis, and calculations to answer Aydın Tiryaki’s questions.
APPENDIX
Turkish Süper Lig 2025-2026: Relegation Zone Status and Impact of Today’s Matches
Author: Aydın Tiryaki
Date: May 17, 2026
Introduction
The 2025-2026 season of the Turkish Süper Lig is nearing its conclusion. As of May 17, 2026, the relegation zone is a major focus, with fans and analysts closely watching which teams will drop to the lower division. This article examines the current standings, today’s matches, and possible scenarios to determine which teams are at risk of relegation.
1. Current Standings (As of May 17, 2026)
In the Süper Lig, the bottom four teams are relegated at the end of the season. As of today, the teams in the relegation zone and their current status are as follows:
| Position | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goal Difference | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fatih Karagümrük | 30 | 34 | -23 | 31 | 54 |
| 17 | Antalyaspor | 29 | 33 | -23 | 32 | 55 |
| 18 | Kayserispor | 27 | 33 | -36 | 25 | 61 |
Teams Already Relegated
- Fatih Karagümrük: Having played 34 matches with 30 points, they are mathematically relegated. Even if they won all remaining matches (which they don’t have), they cannot escape relegation.
- Kayserispor: With 27 points from 33 matches, they are also mathematically relegated. Even if they win today’s match against Konyaspor, they will only reach 30 points, which is still not enough to avoid relegation.
Team at Risk of Relegation: Antalyaspor
- Antalyaspor is currently in 17th place with 29 points from 33 matches.
- They will play Kocaelispor today.
- Their fate will be determined by the result of this match.
2. Today’s Matches (May 17, 2026)
Five matches will be played today, and their outcomes will directly impact the relegation scenarios. The matches and their potential consequences are as follows:
| Time | Match |
|---|---|
| 14:00 | Kayserispor – Konyaspor |
| 17:00 | Fenerbahçe – Eyüpspor |
| 17:00 | Kasımpaşa – Galatasaray |
| 17:00 | Trabzonspor – Gençlerbirliği |
| 17:00 | Antalyaspor – Kocaelispor |
3. Possible Scenarios and Relegation Outcomes
The results of today’s matches, particularly Antalyaspor’s match against Kocaelispor, will determine the final relegation picture. Below are the possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Antalyaspor Wins (32 Points)
- Antalyaspor defeats Kocaelispor and rises to 32 points.
- Fatih Karagümrük: 30 points (no match today)
- Kayserispor: 27/28/30 points (depending on today’s result)
- Outcome:
- Definitely Relegated: Fatih Karagümrük, Kayserispor
- Antalyaspor survives and remains in the league.
Scenario 2: Antalyaspor Draws (30 Points)
- Antalyaspor draws with Kocaelispor and reaches 30 points.
- Fatih Karagümrük: 30 points (no match today)
- Kayserispor: 27/28/30 points (depending on today’s result)
- Tiebreaker Comparison:
- Antalyaspor: -23 goal difference
- Fatih Karagümrük: -23 goal difference
- Kayserispor: -36 goal difference
- Outcome:
- Definitely Relegated: Kayserispor
- Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will be separated by head-to-head records.
- The results of Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük matches will be reviewed.
- If the head-to-head record is tied, overall goal difference and goals scored will be considered.
- Possible Outcome: Either Antalyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük could be relegated.
Scenario 3: Antalyaspor Loses (29 Points)
- Antalyaspor loses to Kocaelispor and remains at 29 points.
- Fatih Karagümrük: 30 points
- Kayserispor: 27/28/30 points
- Outcome:
- Definitely Relegated: Fatih Karagümrük, Kayserispor, Antalyaspor
4. Three-Way Tiebreaker Scenario
If Antalyaspor draws (30 points), Kayserispor wins (30 points), and Fatih Karagümrük remains at 30 points, all three teams will be tied on 30 points. In this case, the official TFF tiebreaker rules will apply:
- Head-to-Head Record (only matches between the tied teams)
- Overall Goal Difference (goal difference in all matches)
- Goals Scored
- Drawing of Lots
Example Calculation:
- Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: 1-1 (Draw)
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor: 2-0 (Antalyaspor win)
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor: 1-1 (Draw)
Head-to-Head Results:
| Team | Points (Head-to-Head) | Goal Difference (Head-to-Head) |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | 4 | +1 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 2 | 0 |
| Kayserispor | 1 | -1 |
Outcome:
- Antalyaspor leads in the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Fatih Karagümrük remains in second place.
- Kayserispor remains in third place and is relegated.
5. Importance of Today’s Matches
Today’s match between Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor will directly determine the relegation scenarios. The possible outcomes of this match and their impact on Antalyaspor’s fate are summarized below:
| Antalyaspor Result | Points | Relegation Status |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 32 | Safe from relegation |
| Draw | 30 | Determined by tiebreakers |
| Loss | 29 | Definitely relegated |
6. Conclusion and Evaluation
Teams Already Relegated
- Fatih Karagümrük
- Kayserispor
Team at Risk of Relegation
- Antalyaspor: Their fate depends on the result of today’s match against Kocaelispor.
- If they win, they will survive.
- If they draw or lose, they may be relegated based on tiebreaker rules.
Summary Table
| Team | Status | Today’s Match | Possible Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | Definitely relegated | – | – |
| Kayserispor | Definitely relegated | Konyaspor | Even if they win, they are relegated |
| Antalyaspor | At risk | Kocaelispor | Win to survive, lose to be relegated |
7. References
8. About the Author
Aydın Tiryaki: A researcher with a strong interest in football analysis and data-driven studies. He has conducted detailed analyses of the relegation scenarios in the Süper Lig.
| aydintiryaki.org | YouTube | Aydın Tiryaki’nin Yazıları ve Videoları │Articles and Videos by Aydın Tiryaki | Bilgi Merkezi│Knowledge Hub | ░ Virgülüne Dokunmadan │ Verbatim ░ | ░ Yapay Zekanın Türkiye Süper Ligi’nde Küme Düşme ile İmtihanı │AI on Trial: Relegation in Turkish Super League ░ 17.05.2026
Aydın Tiryaki 