Aydın Tiryaki

A New Order in European Football: Do Statistics Shatter the Conventional Wisdom?

Aydın Tiryaki and Gemini AI (2026)

European football underwent a historic transformation in the 2024-25 season by transitioning to the “League Phase” system. As traditional group stages made way for this new arrangement, the number of participants, match intensity, and the very nature of the competition evolved significantly. So, what is the current state of the famous “quality gap” between the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League? Current data based on UEFA’s five-year coefficient rankings reveals truths that may shatter the general perceptions of the football public (1).

Three Leagues, Three Different Worlds: The General Average Table

Under the new format, each of the three leagues consists of 36 teams. When we analyze the UEFA performance rankings representing the last five years of European success, we identify the “centers of gravity” for the tournaments as follows:

  • Champions League: Average success ranking ~39.
  • Europa League: Average success ranking ~90.
  • Conference League: Average success ranking ~182.

While these figures confirm a gradual transition between leagues, the presence of teams ranked near 300th in the Champions League alongside giants in the top 30 of the Conference League tells a much more dynamic story behind these averages.

Distribution of the Elite: Where are the Top 36?

Looking at which leagues the top 36 most successful teams in Europe compete in, we see the Champions League dominates the elite tier with a 75% ratio (27 teams). However, what is truly interesting is the presence of names from this elite list like Roma (10th), Porto (19th), Feyenoord (30th), and Rangers (32nd) in the Europa League, and a giant like Fiorentina (24th) in the Conference League. This is the first indication that the peaks of the Europa League and Conference League actually harbor a “hidden Champions League.”

The Statistical Paradox: Europa League’s Peak vs. Champions League’s Broad Group

The most striking finding of this article is hidden in the comparison between teams advancing to the knockout stages. According to data from the end of January 2026 (2):

  1. The top 8 teams of the Europa League (those advancing directly to the Round of 16) have an average UEFA ranking of 16.5.
  2. The top 24 teams of the Champions League (the broad group advancing to the next stage) have an average ranking of 19.

This mathematical reality tells us one thing: The narrow and elite group at the peak of the Europa League possesses a higher historical success and seniority than the broad group of 24 teams that advanced in the Champions League.

The Conference League: A Stage for Surprises and New Powers

The Conference League operates on a very different track compared to the other two tournaments. While the average success of the top 8 teams in the league is around 78, the average for teams like Strasbourg and Raków, who finished the league in the top two spots, drops to 100. This demonstrates that the Conference League is not a realm for established giants, but a proving ground for rising “new powers” and surprise contenders.

From Analysis to the Model: Why a “Single Champion”?

All this statistical work is not just a coincidental pile of data; it serves as a solid foundation for the “Aydın Tiryaki Model,” which aims to ensure justice in European football. The results reached confirm why the proposed model should be implemented for two fundamental reasons:

  • Quality Parity: There is no “quality abyss” between the 24 teams coming from the Champions League (Average Rank: 19) and the 8 teams filtered from the Europa League (Average Rank: 16.5). On the contrary, these 8 teams from the subordinate league are senior enough to raise the average of the Champions League pool.
  • The Right to Compete in the Same Pool: Statistics clearly show that when these 24 + 8 teams are placed in the same pot, no team will be crushed due to a “weight class difference.” The best of the Europa League are capable of competing head-to-head with their Champions League rivals in any competitive environment.

Conclusion

In European football, rather than creating “artificial champions” by dividing prestige into different trophies, a single championship structure based on meritocracy should be established. As the data confirms, the peak of the Europa League and the body of the Champions League are now ready to merge. The fairness of football lies in these 32 elite teams competing in the same pool to produce a “single true champion.”


Footnotes

(1) General Average Calculation Methodology: The “Average Success Ranking” figures used in this study were obtained by totaling the current UEFA Club Coefficient rankings (as of February 2026) of the 36 teams in each league and dividing by 36. For instance, top-tier teams like Manchester City (1st) and Real Madrid (5th) were included in the arithmetic mean along with teams ranked 200-300th in the Champions League, resulting in the “39” figure.

(2) Elite Group (16.5 vs. 19) Calculation Methodology: In this specific comparison, the UEFA ranking numbers of the 8 most successful teams that finished the Europa League stage in the top 8 (e.g., Lyon, Aston Villa, Porto, etc.) were totaled and divided by 8 (Result: 16.5). In the Champions League, the UEFA ranking numbers of all 24 teams advancing to the next round were totaled and divided by 24 (Result: 19). This result mathematically proves that the Europa League elites are ahead of the Champions League knockout pool in terms of seniority.


References


A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)

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