Aydın Tiryaki and Gemeini AI

The fundamental rule for accurately interpreting tennis statistics is to normalize the data across different match formats (best-of-three vs. best-of-five sets). Total match data can create a misleading volume in favor of male players due to the length of play. Therefore, reducing technical efficiency and physical effort to “per set” values scientifically reveals the true differences between women’s and men’s tennis.

1. Grand Slam Match Structure and Set Averages

The completion times and set counts in Grand Slam tournaments are the primary factors determining the tempo of the game.

• Average Number of Sets in Men’s Matches (Best-of-Five): A men’s match played over five sets in Grand Slams lasts an average of 3.8 sets.
• Average Number of Sets in Women’s Matches (Best-of-Three): A women’s match played over three sets in Grand Slams lasts an average of 2.4 sets.
• Average Duration per Set: The average time to complete a set is 46 minutes for men and 41 minutes for women. This difference exists despite higher serve speeds in men’s tennis shortening points, largely due to the frequency of tie-breaks and longer transitions between games.

2. Serve and Error Performance per Set

When statistics are analyzed on a per-set basis, the balance between the serve as a “weapon” and the “margin of error” becomes clearer.

• Average Aces per Set: Men record approximately 3.5 – 4.0 Aces per set, while women record about 1.0 – 1.2 Aces per set.
• Double Faults per Set: Men commit approximately 0.9 double faults per set, whereas this figure rises to 1.9 – 2.1 per set for women. This data highlights the intensity of the pressure women feel on their second serves within a set.
• Break Point Opportunities per Set: Men average 1.5 – 2.0 break point opportunities per set, while women reach an average of 3.5 – 4.0 per set.

3. Physical Effort and Game Intensity per Set

Rather than total distance covered in a match, the effort spent per set more accurately reflects the physical intensity of the play.

• Average Running Distance per Set: Male players cover approximately 1.1 km per set, while female players cover 1.05 km. Although distances appear similar, the difference in the number of shots per set alters the intensity.
• Total Shots per Set: Female tennis players take an average of 25% more shots per set than their male colleagues. The primary reason for this is that rallies tend to be longer in women’s tennis.
• Average Rally Length per Set: In-set rallies average 4.2 shots for men, while this average rises to 6.5 shots per set for women.

4. Set-Based Winning and Comeback Probabilities

The length or brevity of the format determines the psychological value of transitions between sets.

• Probability of Winning after Losing the First Set: In the five-set system (men), a player who loses the first set has about a 22% chance of winning three of the remaining four sets. In the three-set system (women), this probability drops to 14% due to the necessity of winning both remaining sets.
• Second Serve Efficiency: Men achieve a 51% success rate in winning points from their second serves per set, while women average around 44%. This confirms that every set in women’s tennis is a theater for more “service break” battles.

5. Career and Industrial Data (Normalized)

• Earnings per Set: While prize money is equal in Grand Slams, women’s “per hour” or “per set” earnings are higher than men’s when match durations are considered.
• Impact of Biological Interruption: A one-year “maternity leave” in a female player’s career results in an average loss of points from 15 to 18 tournaments, whereas this creates a deviation of nearly 0% in the career continuity statistics of male players.

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A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)