Demographic imbalance between depopulating provinces and overpopulated centers

Türkiye’s Settlement Pattern and Population Dynamics (Supplementary Article 5)

Aydın Tiryaki (2026)

The settlement map of Türkiye has fundamentally changed in the last half-century due to an unstoppable wave of internal migration. This mobility has caused certain centers to become overpopulated beyond their management capacity on one hand, while on the other hand, it has led to some provinces losing population continuously and becoming depopulated. This demographic imbalance is not just a sociological change, but also a major obstacle to the efficient use of public resources and the sustainability of administrative services (1).

In provinces that are losing population, the biggest problem is the extreme increase in the unit cost of providing services on-site. With the migration of the young and productive population, the aging and shrinking population reduces the efficiency of school, hospital, and municipal services in those regions. In many settlement units, public buildings and infrastructure facilities are used well below their capacities; this causes the investments made by the state to fail in finding their full value. The priority of management in such regions should be to protect the quality of life and prevent social dissolution despite the decreasing population (2).

On the other side of the coin are the migration hubs, namely the metropolises where the population is concentrated. In these centers, management faces an infrastructure crisis struggling to keep up with the constantly increasing demand. Uncontrolled growth triggers a housing crisis, paralyzes transportation systems, and degrades the quality of public spaces. In migration hubs, the civil administration must deal not only with managing daily services but also with security and social integration problems created by rapidly changing neighborhood textures. The overcrowding in these regions seriously slows down the speed of citizens’ access to basic rights and services (3).

The administrative solution to this demographic gap lies in a new settlement architecture that will spread population and production to Anatolia in a rational way. “Reverse migration” should not remain just a slogan; it must be supported by concrete incentives that will reveal the unique potentials of depopulating provinces, such as modern agriculture, renewable energy, and digital production centers. At the same time, it constitutes a necessity to create satellite cities and new attraction points around these hubs to alleviate the administrative load on centers receiving migration (4).

In conclusion, Türkiye’s management strategy should focus not only on the number of the population but also on its spatial justice. Overcoming the unfortunate fate of provinces that continuously give out migration and alleviating the life burden of overpopulated provinces is possible through a balanced development model. Reconfiguring our administrative boundaries and service units according to this demographic reality is the most critical requirement for the Türkiye of the future (5).

Aydın Tiryaki Ankara, January 12, 2026

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All ideas, opinions, and suggestions in this article belong to the author. During the process of writing the text, the artificial intelligence Gemini was utilized for writing assistance and information compilation.

REFERENCES

(1) TurkStat, Internal Migration Statistics and Analysis of Reasons for Migration. https://www.tuik.gov.tr

(2) Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Industry and Technology, National Strategy for Regional Development and Province-Based Development Index. https://www.sanayi.gov.tr

(3) Tiryaki, A. (2026). Regional Development and New Attraction Centers (Article 20).

(4) General Directorate of Development Agencies, Local Development Move and Population Dynamics Report. https://www.ka.gov.tr

(5) UN-Habitat, Guide to Managing Urban Growth and Internal Migration. https://unhabitat.org