An administrative approach managing risk and building sustainable living spaces

Türkiye’s Settlement Pattern and Population Dynamics (Article 19)

Aydın Tiryaki (2026)

The settlement map of Türkiye, unfortunately, largely overlaps with active earthquake zones and risk areas of various natural events. This situation moves settlement architecture beyond being merely an aesthetic or economic issue and turns it into a matter of national security and the right to life. Bitter experiences from the past have clearly demonstrated that settlement planning must focus on pre-disaster risk management rather than post-disaster response (1).

A new coordination model between civil administration and local governments is required for a disaster-resilient settlement pattern. In the current structure, zoning permits and building inspection processes can sometimes become flexible due to local pressures or short-term economic expectations. However, resilient cities must be planned with a zero-tolerance principle in the light of science and data (2). At this point, it constitutes a requirement to constantly monitor the capacities of settlement units (carrying capacity, ground structure, evacuation possibilities) through digital twins and simulations (3).

Another pillar of resilient planning is to prevent the over-concentration of population and production in certain centers (especially the Marmara Region). Spreading production and population rationally to safe regions of Anatolia will prevent the country from becoming economically and administratively paralyzed in the event of a major disaster. This is not just a settlement decision, but also a strategy to protect the future of the country (4).

At the local level, it is essential to increase the disaster awareness of citizens and strengthen organization at the neighborhood scale. A model where every neighborhood has its own disaster action plan, backup infrastructure, and trained volunteer force will minimize loss of life while reducing the burden on the central government (5). Disaster resilience is measured by how much the citizen and local units are involved in this process, rather than plans on paper (6).

In conclusion, Türkiye’s settlement architecture must be brought to a structure that is compatible with the realities of nature rather than fighting against it. Building a future resilient to disasters is possible through administrative simplification, digital inspection, and rational population planning. Clearing our living spaces of risks is our most fundamental debt to future generations (7).

Aydın Tiryaki Ankara, January 12, 2026

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All ideas, opinions, and suggestions in this article belong to the author. During the process of writing the text, the artificial intelligence Gemini was utilized for writing assistance and information compilation.

ANNEXES

Annex A: Fundamental Parameters of Disaster Resilient Cities

• Building stock suitable for the ground structure and high engineering standards.
• Uninterrupted transportation networks and alternative evacuation corridors.
• Self-sufficient, redundant energy and water infrastructure.
• Accessible and equipped assembly areas.

Annex B: Tiered Responsibility Model in Disaster Management

• Central Government: Strategic planning and macro-scale risk maps.
• Local Government: Implementation supervision and infrastructure preparation.
• Neighborhood/Village Units: Local response teams and citizen awareness studies.

Annex C: Critical Infrastructure and Logistics Planning

• Digital backup to protect communication networks during disasters.
• Strategic location and stock management of regional logistics warehouses.

REFERENCES

(1) AFAD, Türkiye Disaster Response Plan (TAMP). https://www.afad.gov.tr

(2) Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, Resilient Cities and Urban Transformation Strategy Document. https://www.csb.gov.tr

(3) Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Regional Earthquake Risk Analyses. https://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr

(4) UCTEA Chamber of City Planners, City Planning and Disaster Management Report. https://www.spo.org.tr

(5) JICA, Türkiye Earthquake Resilient Cities Cooperation Report. https://www.jica.go.jp

(6) United Nations, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030) Implementation Guide. https://www.undrr.org

(7) General Directorate of Development Agencies, Regional Vulnerability and Risk Reduction Analyses. https://www.ka.gov.tr