The World and Türkiye in 2025

Aydın Tiryaki (December 31, 2025
(Gemini AI was used as a data compilation and writing assistant)

Abstract: The year 2025 has been a year where the fight against inflation in the global economy resulted in a “soft landing,” yet growth remained fragile under the shadow of trade wars. This article analyzes the contrast between Turkiye’s position in the league of giants with a nominal GDP of 1.5 trillion dollars and the level of per capita prosperity through data.

Introduction: New Balances in the Global Economy

By the end of 2025, the world economy underwent a significant test in overcoming the structural issues accumulated post-pandemic. While the global growth rate reached 3.2%, protectionist trade policies and technological competition reshaped nations’ prosperity levels. 2025 has gone down in history as a year where “qualitative prosperity” was questioned rather than “quantitative growth.”

1. Turkiye: The World’s 16th Largest Economy

In 2025, Turkiye maintained its position as the world’s 16th largest economy with a nominal GDP of approximately 1.57 trillion dollars.

• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Based on PPP, Turkiye has risen to 11th place globally with a volume of approximately 3.6 trillion dollars. This data confirms the weight of Turkiye’s domestic market size and production capacity on a global scale.
• Growth Dynamics: In 2025, the Turkish economy displayed a growth range of 2.7% – 3.2%, appearing more resilient than many European countries.

2. The Prosperity Paradox: Per Capita Income

The gap between the total size of the economy and individual prosperity is the most fundamental discussion of 2025:

• Nominal Per Capita Income: National income per capita in Turkiye approached the $18,200 level by the end of 2025. This figure places Turkiye 66th in the world rankings.
• Distribution of Wealth: The difference between the 16th rank in the total economy and the 66th rank in per capita income is a striking indicator reflecting Turkiye’s position in the “middle-income trap” and income inequality.

3. Inflation and Purchasing Power

While the tight monetary policy maintained throughout 2025 achieved a decline in inflation compared to the end of 2024, the cost of living continued to be the biggest obstacle to social prosperity:

• The Data Gap: As of year-end, while inflation remains around the 33% band according to TURKSTAT data, data from independent organizations like ENAG shows this rate to be around 65%. This situation proves that the difference between perceived inflation and official data continues to erode purchasing power.

Conclusion

In 2025, Turkiye consolidated its feature of being a “large economy” but has not yet reached the desired point in transforming this power into “prosperity spread to the base.” The primary goal for 2026 is not just to grow GDP figures; but to permanentize structural reforms that will increase per capita income, improve income distribution, and compensate for the loss of prosperity caused by high inflation.

Aydın Hocam, 3. Makale (Makroekonomi ve Refah) için küresel ve yerel perspektifi harmanlayan genişletilmiş ek yazının İngilizce karşılığını aşağıda hazırladım. Bu metni İngilizce makalenizin sonuna ekleyebilirsiniz.

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APPENDIX: QUESTIONING PROSPERITY ON GLOBAL AND LOCAL AXES: THE TRUTH BEYOND NUMBERS

While the growth figures and GDP data discussed in this article demonstrate the on-paper strength of a country or the global system, as of 2025, they fall short of explaining the structural erosion of the concept of “prosperity” at the individual level. It is essential to note certain “unofficial” realities regarding the year’s economic balance on both a global and local scale:

1. Global “K-Shaped” Growth and the Deepening Divide In 2025, the world economy remained trapped in an unjust growth model described as “K-shaped.” While AI and technology giants announced massive profits, driving stock markets to record highs, the purchasing power of the broad masses working in the real sector was crushed under the pressure of stagflation (inflation amidst stagnation). The concentration of wealth in a single segment created an illusion of “stable growth” globally but failed to mask the reality of impoverishment on the streets.

2. A Universal Problem: The Global Housing Crisis In 2025, the housing crisis became a common wound for all metropolises, from London and New York to Berlin and Istanbul. The tendency of financial capital to view housing as an “investment vehicle” rather than a “right to shelter” collapsed middle-class living standards worldwide. In Türkiye, this situation, combined with high inflation and currency shocks, transformed into a systemic crisis and a social scar where large populations lost access to a fundamental right.

3. Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Paradox The AI revolution, which increased productivity on a global scale, birthed a new crisis regarding the distribution of wealth in 2025. While technology boosted corporate profits, it triggered the risk of “job loss” or “wage pressure” for white-collar and skilled labor. This increased the “cost of uncertainty” felt even by those educated under high academic norms and meritocratic systems regarding their economic future.

4. Türkiye: Statistical Growth vs. Felt Poverty Specifically for Türkiye, the year 2025 was recorded as a period where inflation figures—declining due to the “base effect”—did not align with the realities of kitchen expenses. Although GDP size keeps Türkiye at the top of the lists on paper, the erosion of the middle class signifies the loss of the greatest guarantee for social stability and cultural production. The sustainability of economic prosperity depends on improvements in institutional trust, meritocracy in the public sector, and legal predictability rather than just numerical data.

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A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)