Author: Aydın Tiryaki (December 31, 2025)
(Gemini AI was used as a data compilation and writing assistant)
Abstract: The year 2025 has been a year where “rules-based order” gave way to “power-based negotiations” in global politics. Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the new status quo on the Ukraine-Russia front, and military shifts in the Middle East formed the main axes of 2025 geopolitics. This article analyzes the stabilizing role Turkiye has assumed through its military capacity within these shaken balances.
Introduction: The Peak of Multipolarity
By 2025, the unipolar world order established after the Cold War has been completely left behind. The inward-looking protectionist policies of the US and the efforts of regional powers to increase their military capacities have transformed global politics into a game of “fragmented balance.”
1. The Trump Era in the US and the Future of NATO
With Donald Trump taking office in early 2025, the “America First” doctrine returned. The military consequences of this situation were as follows:
- Defense Burden: The necessity for European countries to increase defense spending reshaped the continent’s military architecture.
- Isolationism and Vacuums: The tendency of the US to reduce its global military presence in certain regions created a need for regional powers to establish their own security architectures.
2. Military Shifts in the Middle East
The year 2025 has been a year of re-establishing military balances in the Middle East. The new map formed following the regime change in Syria and regional conflicts decreased the influence of extra-regional actors while increasing the decisiveness of local military powers.
3. Frozen Conflict on the Russia-Ukraine Front
While the military balance reached in mid-2025 slowed down the hot war, it placed the region into a permanent cycle of armament. This situation maximized the importance of military presence and defense industry production in and around the Black Sea.
4. Turkiye: Regional Military Power and Stabilizing Element
Turkey is striving to establish a regional military balancer position through its own defense industry initiatives by 2025:
- Deterrent Power: The operationalization of KAAN and unmanned platforms (UAVs/UASs) is expected to qualitatively elevate Turkey’s defense capabilities.
- Strategic Autonomy: A defense industry with reduced external dependence is expected to enable Turkey to act as a balancing factor in regional crises, aligning with its own security priorities.
- Military Presence: Military presence and technological superiority in surrounding geographies are hoped to act as a barrier preventing the deepening of instability in the region.
Turkey’s practices regarding the purchase of defense equipment are exacerbating the difficulties in the US-Russia dilemma.
Conclusion
The year 2025 was marked by a search for a new military balance within the global system. In this new order, where actors who increased their domestic production in the defense industry and modernized their military capabilities held sway, Turkey is expected to emerge as a key player in regional balance.
APPENDIX: POLITICAL FRACTURES OF 2025 AND THE UNOFFICIAL PERSPECTIVE
The global geopolitical transformations discussed in this article are not merely external strategic headings for Türkiye; they are also profound internal “resilience tests.” While analyzing the global balances shaken by the Trump era, it is a necessity for a holistic analysis to emphasize the reflections of these balances on domestic politics and the “unofficial” realities that remain between the lines of official reports.
1. A Test for Local Democracy and Law: The IBB Investigations The year 2025 has been a threshold year in Türkiye regarding the autonomy of local governments and the impact of the judiciary on political processes. The extensive investigations into the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) and the legal proceedings against municipal subsidiaries became the main agenda where the boundaries of local democracy were debated. This situation was recorded as a structural tremor directly affecting Türkiye’s international “democracy scorecard” and institutional trust index.
2. March 19: An Intellectual Threshold and Awareness In the intellectual calendar of this analysis series, the date of March 19 is noted as an “intellectual threshold.” Symbolizing the effort of rational thought to resist disinformation and the struggle for truth against conjunctural pressures, this date is a symbol of the search for a balance between the coldness of data and the nakedness of truth. Amidst the chaos of 2025, such dates represent the awakening points of social memory.
3. Freedom of the Press and the Price of Truth In a period where global disinformation laws were being debated, the legal processes and arrests faced by journalists in Türkiye became one of the most discussed “gray areas” of 2025. Every environment where the price of speaking the truth increases weakens a country’s “soft power” capacity. The data for 2025 shows that the shock caused by the regression in this area in the social conscience is too deep to be overshadowed by geopolitical gains.
A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)
Aydın Tiryaki 