The World and Türkiye in 2025

Aydın Tiryaki (December 31, 2025)
(Gemini AI was used as a data compilation and writing assistant)

Abstract: As 2025 concludes amidst global uncertainty and technological upheavals, the projections for 2026 focus more on the management of systemic risks rather than a grand “recovery.” This final article analyzes how the chronic problems of 2025 will evolve into 2026, Türkiye’s economic vulnerabilities, and the societal uncertainties created by artificial intelligence.

Introduction: A New Phase of Uncertainty

As we bid farewell to the year 2025, the world faces a heavy landscape where unresolved crises are being handed over to a new year. In this period, where steps taken in the fields of economy, education, and the environment have yet to create a tangible increase in welfare, 2026 stands not as a “promising beginning” but as a year that will serve as a durability test for existing structural problems.

1. Global Economy: 2026 and the “Low Growth” Spiral

The pressure of high interest rates and inflation seen in 2025 may give way to a more complex risk of stagnation in 2026:

• The Risk of Slowdown: The fact that inflation is falling on paper in advanced economies does not eliminate the debt burden on households or the stagnation in the real market (stagflation risk). 2026 carries the risk of being a “lost year” where global growth remains below historical averages.
• Geopolitical Fragility: Tensions in energy routes and trade wars may make global supply chains more fragile in 2026; this could make cost increases permanent, turning price stability into a mirage.

2. The Social Cost and Uncertainty of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence, which was applauded as a technological revolution in 2025, will force us to confront its true social costs in 2026:

• Employment Tremors: The takeover of many business lines by autonomous systems could turn discussions of “technological unemployment” into a social crisis in 2026. The fact that AI increases productivity does not guarantee that income will be distributed fairly; on the contrary, the digital divide is expected to widen further.
• Ethics and Oversight Crisis: 2026 will be a year of “gray areas” where disinformation generated by algorithms reaches uncontrollable levels and cybersecurity threats become matters of national security.

3. Türkiye 2026: A Cautious Outlook and Structural Constraints

For Türkiye, the year 2026 is projected as a year of “mandatory stabilization” and “risk management” rather than optimistic scenarios:

• Inflation and Purchasing Power: The figures falling due to the base effect at the end of 2025 may not correspond to a real improvement in the daily lives of citizens. Chronic high-cost structures and the need for foreign exchange may cause pressure on inflation to continue and purchasing power to remain suppressed in 2026.
• Housing and Social Balance: The housing crisis and the process of dispossession in cities will continue to strain the social fabric in 2026. As long as “reverse migration” movements are experienced as an economic exile rather than a choice, this situation may trigger new infrastructure and employment crises in Anatolian cities.
• Quality of Education and Brain Drain: The failure to transform the numerical increase in scientific production into quality may further ignite debates over the legitimacy of universities in 2026. The loss of qualified labor (brain drain) will remain Türkiye’s greatest structural obstacle.

4. The Climate Crisis: Inevitable Confrontation

In 2026, the economic bill of the climate crisis will become even heavier:

• Water and Food Security: The drought legacy of 2025 could carry agricultural production and water management to a crisis level of national security in 2026. The high financing need for the “green transition” may remain an elusive goal for Türkiye due to economic constraints.

Conclusion

The data and experiences of 2025 have proven that the future contains human and economic problems too deep to be solved by technology alone. 2026 will be a year where survival strategies using limited resources are discussed instead of hopeful promises—a year where every step must be taken “cautiously.” For Türkiye, the greatest success in this process will be to protect social resilience and exit the current crisis spiral with the least possible damage, rather than focusing solely on growth.

APPENDIX: GLOBAL POLITICS AND GEOPOLITICS – A CURRENT PERSPECTIVE

The year 2025 has been a period in which the “transactional diplomacy” triggered by the “Trump 2.0” era forced a fundamental transformation of the global system. In this new era, where value-based alliances have been entirely replaced by short-term economic and political interests, long-standing structures like NATO have remained under the shadow of cost-sharing debates, leaving the European Union to grapple with the labor pains of establishing its own strategic autonomy. The weakening of international institutions and law has forced the world to confront a more fragmented and unpredictable balance of power.

Within this global upheaval, Türkiye has attempted to maintain its maneuverability through its traditional balance policy, yet this effort has been conducted under severe economic constraints. While regional normalization steps and crisis-resolution initiatives theoretically provide a degree of strategic autonomy, the increasing need for external financing and currency pressure stand out as the primary obstacles limiting the flexibility of foreign policy. For Türkiye, “active neutrality” has become not just a diplomatic preference but a necessary struggle to manage economic and security risks simultaneously.

As we enter 2026, the balance between the necessity of maintaining institutional and economic ties with the Western bloc and the contacts established with rising structures like BRICS+ has shifted to much riskier ground. In this new period, where the cost of any strategic deviation is significantly heavier than in the past, Türkiye’s success in foreign policy is no longer measured solely by gains at the negotiation table, but by its ability to emerge from accumulating systemic crises with the least possible damage.

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A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)