The World and Türkiye in 2025

Aydın Tiryaki (December 31, 2025)
(Gemini AI was used as a data compilation and writing assistant)

Abstract: The year 2025 has been a demographic milestone with the global population surpassing the 8.2 billion threshold. This article analyzes the contrast between the rising elderly population globally and the young population explosion in developing countries, alongside Turkiye’s position with its population of over 85.8 million within this framework.

Introduction: A World of 8.2 Billion

As of December 31, 2025, the world population has reached approximately 8.23 billion. Throughout the year, approximately 132 million births and 62 million deaths occurred, showing that while the planet is becoming more crowded, it is also becoming demographically more “fragmented.” 2025 has been a year that registered the shift of demographic power from the West to the East and South.

1. New Gravity Centers of Global Population

In 2025, the rate of population growth showed sharp differences between regions:

• South Asia and Africa: India consolidated its position as the world’s most populous country, having surpassed China. African nations such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo maintained some of the world’s youngest population structures. Nigeria alone is projected to record approximately 7.6 million births this year—more than all of Europe combined.
• Europe and East Asia: Japan, South Korea, and many European countries continue to grapple with “negative growth” and hyper-aging. In 2025, “labor shortage” became the most discussed crisis in many Western capitals.

2. The “Silver Tsunami” and an Aging World

The proportion of the population aged 65 and over globally reached a historic peak in 2025. While advancements in medical technology are extending average life expectancy—reaching a global average of 73.5 years—falling birth rates have heightened concerns about a “demographic winter.” This situation places immense pressure on social security systems and healthcare expenditures.

3. Turkiye’s Demographic Portrait: 85.8 Million and the Aging Threshold

Turkiye continues its position as the world’s 18th most populous country, with its population reaching 85.8 million in 2025. However, the primary headline for Turkiye this year was not its “young population” but its “accelerating aging”:

• Critical Threshold in the Elderly Population: The proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Turkiye has surpassed the 11% threshold. This data confirms that Turkiye is rapidly moving into the “very aged society” category.
• Fertility Rates: The total fertility rate remaining below the replacement level of 2.1 (at approximately 1.48) has confirmed that Turkiye faces the risk of losing its “youth dividend.” President Erdoğan declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” to address these declining rates through new social incentives.
• Urbanization and Istanbul: Approximately 18.3% of Turkiye’s population (nearly 16 million) is concentrated in Istanbul alone, bringing demographic imbalance along with economic and security risks.

Conclusion

The data for 2025 has proven that population is no longer just a matter of numerical size but also one of “quality and sustainability.” Countries that can educate their young populations and support their elderly through technology will enter 2026 with a greater advantage. For Turkiye, the fundamental challenge is to accelerate structural reforms that will transform this demographic shift into an economic opportunity.

Aydın Hocam, 2. Makale (Demografi ve Nüfus) için onayladığınız ek yazının İngilizce karşılığını aşağıda hazırladım. Bu metni İngilizce makalenizin altına doğrudan ekleyebilirsiniz.

---

APPENDIX: SOCIAL AND UNOFFICIAL ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION

The population dynamics examined in this article are not merely cold statistics of birth and death rates. As of 2025, it is necessary to highlight certain “unofficial” fractures underlying the demographic structure that reflect the collective psyche of society:

1. Economic Pressure and “Deferred Lives” The decline in population growth in Türkiye is not just a result of modernization but also a direct reflection of the housing crisis and the high cost of living. In 2025, starting a family or having children has become a “financial impossibility” rather than a biological process for younger generations. These “deferred lives” will manifest in the coming years not just as a loss of labor force, but as a profound intergenerational rift.

2. Migration and the Changing Social Fabric While official population data emphasizes an “aging Türkiye,” the demographic shift created by refugees and irregular migration has carried the cultural and social fabric to a dimension beyond official reports. This uncontrolled change puts immense pressure on urbanization and public services, bringing the concept of “demographic security”—one of the most critical discussion topics of 2025—to the forefront.

3. The Longevity Paradox and Social Loneliness Although the extension of average life expectancy through medical progress is presented as a success, it has turned into a “longevity paradox” in 2025 Türkiye. Weaknesses in social security systems and deepening social loneliness in a digitalizing world show that the elderly population faces not just an economic burden, but a serious “mental health crisis.”

4. The “Brain Drain” of the Qualified Population The most critical point that should not be overlooked in demographic analyses is the ongoing migration of Türkiye’s best-educated young population with high academic standards. The loss of the minds destined to build the country’s future carries the risk of a “qualitative collapse” that quantitative population increases cannot compensate for.

---

A Note on Methods and Tools: All observations, ideas, and solution proposals in this study are the author’s own. AI was utilized as an information source for researching and compiling relevant topics strictly based on the author’s inquiries, requests, and directions; additionally, it provided writing assistance during the drafting process. (The research-based compilation and English writing process of this text were supported by AI as a specialized assistant.)